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Inbox: Which hurler has highest upside?
Beat reporter Spencer Fordin answers O's fans' questions
By Spencer Fordin / MLB.com
11/30/09 10:00 AM EST
Which of Baltimore's rookie pitchers from 2009 (Brad Bergesen, David Hernandez, Chris Tillman or Brian Matusz) do you see having the strongest '10 season or career for that matter?-- Mike V., Rochester, N.Y.
This question is really a matter of taste, and you could get three different answers from three different analysts. Most would likely say that Bergesen is the most prepared for initial success and that Tillman and Matusz have the greatest long-term potential, and anything more intricate than that borders on wishcasting and guesswork.
Here's what we know: Matusz was the highest drafted of that quartet, Tillman has been among the youngest pitchers in every league in which he's competed and Bergesen has been a classic overachiever to this point in his career. Hernandez has experienced success in the Minors but may ultimately fit best as a power reliever.
Frankly, I expect Tillman vs. Matusz to be openly debated in press boxes and living rooms for much of the next decade. Both have well-rounded arsenals with the promise of something more, and both seem to have a maturity beyond their years. And at this point, who you like better really boils down to a question of taste.
Anyway, I think I'd probably grade Tillman a little higher than Matusz just because he has a longer Minor League track record and I feel like there's a little more certainty into what he will become. But that's just my opinion, and you could certainly craft much longer cases for either candidate if you were so passionately inclined.
There are rumors flying about a trade for Florida's Dan Uggla. How well can he fit in the mix, and can he man third until Josh Bell arrives?
-- Chris P., Jefferson, Pa.
Uggla would fit perfectly into the batting order, but it may be a little problematic to see how he fits in the field. The former Rule 5 Draft pick has played second base exclusively in the Major Leagues, logging more than 600 games at the keystone. And the Orioles have Brian Roberts there, which would necessitate Uggla's move to third base.
Uggla, a two-time All-Star with the Marlins, is in his second year of arbitration and has two years of service left before free agency. That's why there are rumors about his availability, and it's also why he makes sense for the Orioles. Baltimore could absorb his salary easily, which could lighten the potential return going to Florida.
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And that's where things get sticky. If the Orioles rightly view Uggla as a stopgap to Bell, they may not be willing to part with the kind of prospects it would take to persuade the Marlins. It all really depends on two factors: How badly Florida wants to pare its payroll and how many other teams are in the mix to trade for Uggla.
Uggla, if acquired, would move right into a power slot and help balance out a lineup that tilts heavily to the left. The Orioles would live with his defense to get his bat, and he wouldn't necessarily block Bell from a promotion. If Bell hits, he'll be up soon enough, and the Orioles could then either DH Uggla or try to deal him elsewhere.
I see Miguel Tejada and Erik Bedard filed for free agency. Any word on possibly bringing either one back? I'm sure Tejada would move over to third base.
-- Andy B., Holly Springs, N.C.
I could see Bedard coming back to Baltimore, but Tejada would be a little more of a surprise reunion. Tejada has slowed afield and offensively in the past two seasons and he's never played third base in the Majors. Also, Tejada famously wants to play every day and the Orioles will likely try to phase in Bell at some point.
Bedard, meanwhile, presents a more interesting scenario. First of all, his trade to Seattle famously rebooted the franchise, netting Baltimore Adam Jones, George Sherrill, Tillman and more. And while signing him again would have tremendous symbolic value, it would also have potentially huge value at the top of the rotation.
But to do so, he'd have to be healthy. Bedard struggled with injuries for the past few seasons and had an operation to repair a tear in the labrum of his pitching shoulder in August. There's no guarantee that the southpaw will ever regain the top-shelf stuff that made him so heavily pursued, but it may be worth a low-cost risk to find out.
Bedard loved the challenge of competing in the American League East, and the notoriously media-shy Canadian almost certainly doesn't want the responsibility of being a media magnet in Toronto. Bedard will have several teams vying for his services, and he may well opt to return to the team that drafted and developed him.
When the Orioles traded Tejada at the end of the 2007 season, one of the names that came over was Troy Patton, who, as the O's knew, was injured but had the potential to be a good arm. Does Patton still factor into the future of the pitching staff?
-- Steve P., Pittsburgh
That depends on Patton, who returned from labrum surgery last season and had an interesting ride split between two levels. The left-hander turned heads at Double-A Bowie by going 6-2 with a 1.99 ERA in 11 starts, but he was knocked around to the tune of a 1-3 record and a 6.45 ERA following a promotion to Triple-A Norfolk.
Patton missed all of the 2008 season, which serves as a prism to view his befuddling '09. It was undoubtedly a success just for Patton to get through the year without injury, but the burden of re-establishing himself as a prospect rests on his surgically repaired shoulder. And at 24 years old, there's plenty of time for him to come back.
The Orioles packed their rotation full of rookies last season, and there should be competition for slots at Norfolk during Spring Training. Patton will have a job earmarked for him and should get every opportunity to succeed as a starter, but Baltimore's increasing depth in talent means he may have some arms chasing him from behind.
Spencer Fordin is a reporter for MLB.com. This story was not subject to the approval of Major League Baseball or its clubs.
